Peramalan Jumlah Kebutuhan Packaging Papper Photocopy (PPC) PT. Y Menggunakan Metode Moving Avarage dan Exponential Smoothing

Nabila Tiara Albani; Wahyudin Wahyudin

doi:10.37090/indstrk.v8i3.1222

Authors

Nabila Tiara Albani Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang
Wahyudin Wahyudin Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37090/indstrk.v8i3.1222

Abstract

In the era of globalization, industry and trade in Indonesia face fierce competition. Technological advances require quality human resources from formal and non-formal educational institutions with supporting facilities. This research focuses on solving safety stock problems using the Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average methods. Due to the current changing market demand, the results of data processing carried out using the Quality Management (QM) program for Windows show that the forecasting method with the Moving Average approach has the highest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.03%, while the Exponential Smoothing method has a MAPE value of 13.7%. So with this, the lowest MAPE value is in the forecasting method with the Exponential Smoothing approach of 13.7%.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing Method, Moving Average Method, MAPE, Safety Stock

References

Apriliani, A., Zainuddin, H., Agussalim, A., & Hasanuddin, Z. (2020). Peramalan Tren Penjualan Menu Restoran Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average. Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dan Ilmu Komputer, 7(6).

Gaspersz, & Vincent. (2008). Production Planning And Inventory Control: Berdasarkan Pendekatan Sistem Terintegrasi Mrp Ii Dan Jit Menuju Manufakturing 21. Pt. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Herjanto. (2009). Manajemen Produksi Dan Operasi. Pt. Gramedia Widiasarana Indonesia.

Hudaningsih, N., Firda Utami, S., & Ammar Abdul Jabbar, W. (2020). Perbandingan Peramalan Penjualan Produk Aknilpt.Sunthi Sepurimengguanakan Metode Single Moving Averagedan Single Exponential Smooting. Jurnal Jinteks, 2(1), 15–22.

Nasution, A. H., & Prasetyawan. (2008). Perencanaan Dan Pengendalian Produksi (Pertama Ed.). Graha Ilmu.

Qamal, M. (2016). Peramalan Penjualan Makanan Ringan Dengan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Penelitian Teknik Informatika, 8(1), 26–35.

Rachman, R. (2018). Penerapan Metode Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Produksi Industri Garment. Jurnal Informatika, 5(1), 211–220.

Radasanu Alin Constantin. (2016). Inventory Management, Service Level And Safety Stock. Journal Of Public Administration, Finance And Law, 9, 145–153.

Sari, R. K., & Isnaini, F. (2021). Perancangan Sistem Monitoring Persediaan Stok Es Krim Campina Pada Pt Yunikar Jaya Sakti. Jurnal Informatika Dan Rekayasa Perangkat Lunak (Jatika), 2(1), 151–159.

Subagyo. (2008). Forecasting Konsep Dan Aplikasi. Bpfe.

Suryani, F., Moulitas, R. A. N., & Aprilyanti, S. (2023). Analisis Peramalan Pemasangan Internet Dengan Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing Analysis Of Internet Installation Forecasting Using Single Moving Average And Exponential Smoothing Methods. 01, 1–5.

Susanti, N., & Sahli, M. (2013). Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dalam Sistem Informasi Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku (Studi Kasus Toko Tirta Harum). Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer, 3(1).

Taylor. (2009). Sains Manajemen 8th Ed. Salemba Empat.

Tri Prasetio, R. (2014). Inventory Control Using Statistics Forecastingon Manufacturecompany. Jurnal Informatika, 2(2), 136–142.

Wijaya, A. R. (2023). Model Prediksi Data Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing. Buletin Ilmiah Math. Stat. Dan Terapannya (Bimaster), 12(1), 21–28.